MoneyDiscourse
Independent market researchRajen Kapadia Trading since 1998

The research. The trade. The record.

A trading record that shows its working.

Every options trade since 2022. Winners and losers, published alongside the research behind them.

Realised P&L

2022 — 2026

+$25,373

From a $10,000 starting base

$0$2.0K$4.0K$6.0K$8.0K$10.0K+$1,7252022+$4,9132023+$3,2832024+$6,5212025+$8,9312026
Annual realised profit & lossFull record

Data as of 28 Sep 2026 · Open positions excluded from realised P&L.

Total return
+254%

Since 2022

Win rate
71.3%

Closed trades

Trades logged
424

Every win. Every loss.

Profit factor
2.08

Gross profit / gross loss

A record quarter, and a downgrade about next year's margins

Apple's strongest June quarter ever, then a Jefferies cut to Underperform three weeks later. The two are not in conflict: the quarter was about the installed base, the downgrade is about what a sixfold rise in memory prices does to iPhone margins from here. A higher-risk buy — long on momentum and a level, not on conviction about the next five years.

13 Aug 2026 · 3 min read

Bookings up 24%, and a $10bn down payment on autonomy

Bookings up 24%, margins widening, trailing free cash flow through $10bn — and one of the few large names still well off its highs, held back by an AV threat that is currently under 0.5% of trips. Uber also put a number on autonomy for the first time: $10bn and roughly 120,000 vehicles.

7 Aug 2026 · 6 min read

Azure accelerates to 43%, and the capex bill arrives with it

Azure at 43% and an 11.8% EPS beat, landing in the name that had been the laggard of the Mag 7 — which is exactly why it moved sentiment as much as it did. The business is in good shape. After a run from the $350s to a shade under $500, the entry price no longer is. Moving to Hold.

4 Aug 2026 · 4 min read

Rajen Kapadia

Trading since 1998

@moneydiscourse

I started trading at university in 1998, and joined a prop desk in 2005 running interest rate futures spreads. Equities came later, and for some years now it has been primarily options — mainly selling puts, combined with calls or spreads.

Market junkie, fundamentally. I have traded through plenty of difficult stretches and plenty of good ones, and I am still standing — which in this business counts for rather more than any single year’s return.

Which is why the record here is complete rather than curated. Every trade, winners and losers, and the reasoning behind the ones worth writing up.

More about the record →