Buybacks rescue the long end

Merck and Moderna's personalised mRNA vaccine, intismeran autogene, met its primary and a key secondary endpoint in the phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial. That is 1,137 patients with fully resected stage IIB–IV melanoma, vaccine plus Keytruda against Keytruda alone, called at a pre-planned interim look. It's the first positive phase 3 for an individualised neoantigen therapy, and the first for any mRNA cancer treatment. The gap between the two share moves is market cap: roughly $25bn against $333bn going in.

The maximum size of liquidity-support buyback operations in longer-dated nominal coupons goes from $2bn per operation to at least $4bn, covering the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors, effective 9 September and running through 4 November. The 30-year fell from 5.26% to roughly 5.196% after topping 5.3% earlier in the week, its highest since 2007. This is a liquidity tool rather than policy, but the timing says the long end had the Treasury's attention.

The Committee held at 3.50–3.75%, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan all preferring a quarter-point hike. The hawkishness ran wider than the three dissents: participants said tightening would likely be necessary if inflation didn't come down, and some judged financial conditions still not tight enough to get back to 2%. Warsh also opened a discussion on cutting the meeting calendar from eight a year to six.

Estée Lauder jumped on adjusted EPS of $0.39 against $0.32 consensus and revenue of $3.63bn against $3.55bn, with an FY27 guide whose midpoint sits above the Street. That ends three straight years of falling annual revenue. Lowe's gained on a genuinely mixed print: adjusted EPS of $4.40 beat the $4.22 estimate, but sales of $25.96bn missed $26.16bn, with management pointing at smaller projects. Target rose on another beat.

OpenAI turned over $6.7bn in Q2, up 18% sequentially from $5.7bn, with the operating loss widening from $9.3bn to $12.3bn. Anthropic more than doubled to $11.6bn and posted a small adjusted operating profit, outselling OpenAI in a quarter for the first time. Neither is listed, so there is nothing to trade directly. It matters because the AI capex trade is priced off an assumption that model revenue compounds faster than the spend, and one of the two just showed the other pattern.

Most of the S&P was higher, but chipmakers fell again and small caps went the other way entirely. The dollar hit a three-month low, oil rose on renewed Middle East tension, and bitcoin had its best day since March. A bond rally carried the tape. What sat underneath it did not agree.