A holding pattern, then $96 billion

Revenue was $96.2bn, up 18% on the quarter and 106% on the year, against management's own guide of $91bn plus or minus 2%. Data centre did $89.0bn, up 117%, and hyperscalers alone more than doubled to $48.7bn. EPS was $2.22 on a 75.0% gross margin, against consensus near $2.08. The number that matters more is the next one: Q3 guided to $108.0bn plus or minus 2%, where the street had roughly $104bn. That guide assumes no data centre revenue from China at all.

The S&P closed down 0.02%, the Nasdaq 100 up 0.05%, the Dow off 0.21% and the Russell down 0.14%. Four indices, nothing to separate them. The VIX slipped 1.55% to 15.21, so this wasn't nerves, it was absence. Nvidia itself fell 1.59% into its own print. Nobody wanted the position before the number, and there was no reason to take the other side either.

Adjusted EPS of $4.17 against $2.33 a year ago, sales up 4.8% to $1.27bn, and the full-year operating margin guide lifted to 14.5–15% from 12–12.5%. Sitting inside it was $100m of tariff refunds following the Supreme Court ruling against the IEEPA tariffs. That refund is not company-specific, but the tape treated it as though it were: Ross fell 2.04%, TJX 1.90%, Kohl's added 1.47%. Nobody bid the other importers.

Meta settled with 47 states over claims its platforms were built to drive compulsive use by teenagers, agreeing to pay up to $17bn across ten years and to change how Instagram and Facebook work for minors. It's the largest state consumer-protection settlement outside the tobacco deals of the nineties, and it ends a trial where Zuckerberg was expected to testify. The stock whipsawed and finished up 1.07%.

The 2-year rose 2bp to 4.19%, the 10-year 2bp to 4.66%, the 30-year 1bp to 5.18%. Parallel again, in the opposite direction, and 10s2s sat at 47bp for a second day. Two sessions of the whole curve moving together and refusing to change shape is a market declining to guess what Warsh says on Friday.