Nvidia ran, and software ran harder

Nvidia closed at $227.98, up 8.74%, on last night's $96.2bn and the $108bn guide. Broadcom followed it up 4.49% and the semiconductor ETF added 3.10%. AMD fell 0.89% and Micron 0.32%. That's not a chip rally, it's a bid for Nvidia and the names that sell into the same racks. Anyone holding semis as a proxy for the AI trade got a reminder this week that the proxy and the trade are different things.

Net revenue of $2.739bn, up 37% and a record, against management's guide of $2.700bn plus or minus 5%. Data centre did $2.171bn, growth accelerating to 46%, and now carries 79% of the company against 74% a year ago. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.94 on a $0.93 guide. The company raised its outlook for both fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028.

Third quarter guided to $3.150bn plus or minus 5%, non-GAAP EPS $1.10 plus or minus $0.05. That's a 15% step up on a quarter that just grew 37%, and the second straight quarter Marvell has lifted the outlook. Mind the basis in the other direction from Nvidia here: GAAP EPS was $0.33 against non-GAAP $0.94, on gross margins of 53.1% and 58.9%. Consensus is struck on the non-GAAP number.

The stock traded about 1% lower after the release. Revenue cleared its own guide by 1.4%, EPS by a cent, and the next quarter came in just above where the street had it. Inline results and guidance a shade better is a good quarter by any ordinary measure. Marvell is up 170% this year, and that is the measure it was being held to.

Salesforce closed up 22.58% and CrowdStrike 20.50%, both on last night's numbers, and both larger moves than Nvidia's. CrowdStrike did $1.47bn against $1.44bn expected, up 26%, with adjusted EPS of 31 cents against 29, and lifted the full year to $5.99–6.01bn. Its CEO called it the best quarter in the company's history. Between them and Nvidia, the Nasdaq 100's 1.43% came from a handful of names.

The headline is a non-GAAP $5.90 against consensus near $3.27, which reads as an 80% beat and isn't one. Salesforce's own release puts $2.43 per share of that on gains from strategic investments, $2,613m in the quarter. Revenue was $11.3bn, up 11%, which is inside the guide rather than above it. What actually improved was the backlog: current remaining performance obligations up 14% in constant currency to $33.5bn, and the full-year revenue outlook raised to $46.1–46.4bn.

Yields rose 1bp at every tenor: 2-year 4.20%, 10-year 4.67%, 30-year 5.19%. That's 10s2s at 47bp for the third session running, and the third day in a row the whole curve has moved together without changing shape. The VIX fell 4.6% to 14.51, its lowest this week. Nobody is positioning for Warsh, which is itself a position.