The overnight print was a poor guide
Credo fell 4.6% after hours on Tuesday and 20% in Wednesday's session. Palo Alto fell 0.9%, then 9.3%. Dell's 10% became 15.8%. The curve stopped dead after nineteen basis points in three sessions, volatility gave back yesterday's spike, and Broadcom reported after the close with revenue up 86%.
- S&P 500
- +0.46%
- Russell 2000
- +1.13%
- VIX
- 15.20−7.0%
- 2-year
- 4.39%0bp
- 10-year
- 4.79%0bp
The overnight print was a poor guide
CRDO −4.6% → −20.0%Five companies reported after Tuesday's close. What they did in the thin hour afterwards bore little relation to what they did once the market opened. Credo was down 4.6% overnight and finished today down 20.04%. Palo Alto was down 0.9% and finished down 9.28%. Dell's 10% became 15.81%. Only GitLab went the other way, giving back half of a 15% overnight gain to close up 9.98%. Four of the five moved further in the same direction, two of them by a multiple.
That gap isn't noise, and the overnight number isn't wrong. It is a reaction to the release alone — priced before management has said a word. The call comes an hour later and carries the guidance and the colour, and the upgrades and downgrades land the following morning. An after-hours price is an answer to a third of the question.
Credo lost a fifth on a quarter that doubled
CRDO −20.0%Revenue of $479m, up 115%. Non-GAAP EPS more than double the year before. Optical guided above $600m for the fiscal year. The stock closed at $165.22, down 20.04%, its worst session in a long time. Nothing in the release explains a fifth of the market cap; what explains it is what the price already contained before the release.
Dell went the other way
DELL +15.8%Dell closed at $492.20, up 15.81%, having fallen 6.80% into its own print the day before. Revenue was $47.0bn, up 58%, with AI-optimised servers at $16.4bn in the quarter and a record $95bn backlog. The full year went from $167bn to $192bn. Two sessions ago this was a stock the market was selling.
Volatility gave it straight back
VIX 15.20 −7.0%The VIX fell 6.98% to 15.20, undoing most of Tuesday's 9.52% jump. The Russell led the tape up 1.13%, the Dow added 0.56% and the S&P 0.46%. After a session where everything fell together, small caps led everything higher — which is not what a market genuinely worried about the front end does.
And the curve stopped dead
10s2s 40bpThe two-year finished at 4.39%, the ten at 4.79% and the thirty at 5.27%, all three unchanged on the day. The five gave up a single basis point. After nineteen basis points on the front end across three sessions, the repricing simply stopped. Whether that is settled or paused is the only question the bond market left open today.
Broadcom, after the close
Rev $29.6bn +86%Revenue of $29.6bn, up 86%, a record. AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7bn, up 221% on the year and 54% on the quarter, against its own $16.0bn guide. Fourth quarter AI revenue guided to $21.7bn, up 236%, on total revenue of about $34.8bn. Then the call, where Hock Tan put line of sight to $115bn of AI semiconductor revenue in fiscal 2027 and $230bn in fiscal 2028, against $58bn this year, and said supply is secured for both with demand still running ahead of it. The release and the call are two different disclosures, and tonight the second one was much the larger.