Payrolls tripled the estimate, and the curve shrugged
August payrolls rose 162,000 against a 53,000 estimate, with June and July both revised up — July flips from a loss to a gain. The two-year moved only 3bp on it. Guidewire and Lululemon both fell again, completing the pattern from their earnings two nights ago: release, call, then a morning of analysts and the market finishing the read. Marvell and the chip complex rebounded hard, without a name to attach it to.
- S&P 500
- −0.38%
- Nasdaq 100
- +0.21%
- Russell 2000
- +0.25%
- VIX
- 14.53+1.5%
- 2-year
- 4.37%+3bp
Payrolls tripled the estimate
+162k vs +53kNonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in August against a 53,000 estimate, the strongest gain since March. Unemployment held at 4.1%, wages rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year. The revisions are the other half of the story: June went from +20,000 to +31,000 and July from −23,000 to +21,000 — a month that looked like the labour market's first real crack now reads as a gain. Three months of data just got materially firmer at once.
And the curve barely moved
2-yr +3bp · 30-yr −1bpThe two-year rose 3bp to 4.37%, the five 2bp, the ten 1bp — and the thirty actually fell 1bp to 5.24%. The dollar matched the mood, up 0.16%, essentially flat. A payrolls beat three times the estimate, with two months of upward revisions attached, used to be the kind of print that moves the front end double digits. After a week where Warsh's speech alone did 14bp, 3bp on this is either a market that had already priced firmer data, or one that has simply stopped reacting the way it used to.
Guidewire's three disclosures finished landing
GWRE −19.9%Guidewire fell another 19.93% in today's session, after Wednesday night's beat-and-fall and Thursday's continued slide. BTIG kept its Buy rating but cut its price target from $230 to $220 this morning — the analyst-action stage the template describes as the third disclosure, following the release and the call. Two sessions and a target cut after a quarter that beat on both lines, the market is still working through what the guide actually implied.
Lululemon's comps miss got the same treatment
LULU −17.4%Lululemon fell 17.38% in the regular session, in line with Thursday night's after-hours reaction to comps down 9% and a guide cut to a full-year revenue decline. No new information today, just the market spending a second session pricing what the tariff refund in the headline EPS was covering up.
Marvell and the chip complex rebounded, and nobody named why
MRVL +7.1% · SMH +2.6%Marvell rose 7.05%, the semiconductor ETF 2.61%, Samsara 3.74%. After two sessions falling on a quarter that actually beat its own guide, some of that came back today. Coverage attributes it to a broader AI-stock rebound rather than any Marvell-specific news, and that is as far as it can honestly be taken — a real move with no name attached to it.