Hormuz escalated again, and so did rate-hike odds
The US destroyed five Iranian tankers and Brent crossed $100 for the first time since July, after Iran attempted a second attack on a US warship. Fed funds futures now price roughly 59% odds of a hike at next week's FOMC meeting, up from 40% two weeks ago, and yields moved the most since Warsh's speech. Cooper Companies, Navan and American Eagle all reported after the close — one a clean GAAP-versus-real-earnings trap, two more names that beat and got sold anyway.
- S&P 500
- −0.48%
- Russell 2000
- −1.32%
- VIX
- 16.46+4.7%
- 2-year
- 4.43%+4bp
- WTI
- $97.18+4.5%
Rate-hike odds rose, and yields moved the most since Warsh
2-yr +4bp · 5-yr +4bpThe two-year rose 4bp to 4.43%, the five 4bp, the ten 3bp, the thirty 3bp — the largest parallel move since the Jackson Hole speech itself. Fed funds futures now price roughly 59% odds of a hike at next week's meeting, up from about 40% two weeks ago and 57% right after Warsh spoke. This isn't a new catalyst so much as the market continuing to mark itself to his framework, one data point at a time.
Hormuz escalated again, and oil crossed $100
WTI +4.5% · Brent $100The US destroyed five Iranian crude tankers yesterday, in retaliation for an attempted attack on an American warship that Iran tried again today. Brent crossed $100 for the first time since July; WTI rose 4.46% to $97.18. Goldman raised its December Brent and WTI forecasts by $5 on it.
Cooper's headline number isn't the real one
COO −13.9%GAAP EPS of $2.24 against $0.49 a year ago looks like the quarter of the year. It is a $307.2m one-time UK tax settlement. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.15, up 4% and a modest beat on the $1.11 consensus — on revenue growth of just 1% organic. The real number is fine, not exceptional, and the 14% fall reads as the market finding that out.
Two more beat and got sold anyway
NAVN −11.2% · AEO −10.5%Navan grew revenue 35%, beat on every line, and raised the year — down over 11% regardless, the ninth name in three weeks to do this after Marvell, MongoDB, Credo, Palo Alto, NetApp, Broadcom, Guidewire and Casey's. American Eagle grew comps 6% and raised its operating income guide, but said so explicitly including $45m of IEEPA tariff refunds — the fourth apparel name this month carrying one, after Abercrombie, PVH and Lululemon.
AeroVironment was the one that got bought
AVAV +3.6%EPS of $0.59 against a $0.22 estimate, and funded backlog at a record $1.5bn, up 37% and more than double what was expected. Full-year guidance reaffirmed. Against a session where beating wasn't enough for eight other names, this is what actually moves a stock up: a number that changes the two-year view, not just the quarter just reported.
Apple unveiled its first foldable iPhone
AAPL −0.28%iPhone Duo — a 7.6-inch inner display folded into a 5.4-inch outer one, titanium body, starting at $1,999 — was the headline of today's "Surprise and shine" event. Pre-orders open October 16, with the launch October 23. The stock swung a real range on it, from $309.90 to $319.15 intraday, roughly 3% top to bottom, but closed at $315.34 — down just 0.28% on the day. A volatile session that landed almost exactly where it started.