PPI and oil both surprised high, and the hike trade ran

August producer prices rose 0.4% on the month, up from 0.1% in July and 5.4% over the year; the core measure that strips food, energy and trade services was 0.3%. It landed the same morning oil spiked, and the combination pushed CME FedWatch odds of a hike at next week's meeting to roughly 70%, from about 60% yesterday, with December now near 60% too. The Treasury curve rose 9 to 14bp across — the two-year 13bp to 4.56%, the five 14bp, the ten 12bp. That is a bigger move across the curve than the day Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole, when the front end jumped but the long end barely moved. Long-duration equity took it hardest: the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%, AMD 3.4% and Nvidia 2.4%.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it targeted two US Navy vessels, eight oil tankers and ten other ships in the strait, days after US forces destroyed five Iranian tankers, and Houthi forces were reported to have seized a port on Yemen's west coast. WTI settled up 6.3% near $102, Brent up 6.0% near $107 — both kept climbing after the settle, to roughly $104 and $109 by the equity close, but those are electronic prints rather than the settle. Goldman said continued attacks on shipping raise the risk of oil above $120.

The regular session took Oracle down 5.38% before it reported. After the close: remaining performance obligations of $664bn, up $209bn year on year, after booking more than $30bn of new AI cloud contracts in the quarter alone. Revenue rose 30% to $19.3bn and cloud infrastructure 121%. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.92, GAAP $1.56, and the company guided full-year revenue to at least $90bn. The stock was up about 6.7% after hours. The regular-session fall and the after-hours jump are two different periods reacting to two different things.

Wednesday's iPhone Duo launch left the stock flat. Thursday the sell-side notes came in and it rose 3.56% to $326.57 — Evercore said Apple will sell every unit it can build in the first six months, Melius put fiscal-2027 volume as high as 15 million and iPhone revenue growth toward 20%. BofA went the other way and trimmed its target to $370 on component-cost inflation. This is analyst opinion, not a company forecast.

Adobe grew revenue 13% to $6.76bn, beat on non-GAAP EPS at $6.13, said its AI-first ARR is up more than 150%, and raised the full year — and fell 2.1% after hours. RH beat the top of its own guide and raised the year, up 7.6%, though a $55.1m IEEPA tariff refund flattered the margin by about 600bp and made it the fifth retailer this month with one of those, after Abercrombie, PVH, Lululemon and American Eagle. Copart missed its quarter but rose 8.3% on a separate announcement — it is buying ACV Auctions for $1.9bn in cash. Zumiez fell 16.5% on a soft guide.