The BoJ hiked too, and the week round-tripped to flat
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate 25bp to 1.25%, a 31-year high, in a 7-2 split vote — and the yen fell anyway on a press conference that gave no clear signal of more hikes, the same shape as Wednesday's Fed decision. A roughly $7tn quad-witching expiration added volume without much direction, and the Treasury curve gave back the entirety of Thursday's relief rally, closing the 10-year right back at Wednesday's post-hike level. The S&P finishes the week essentially flat, down 0.11%, after a session-by-session round trip through a chip selloff, a hot PPI, the Fed's first hike since 2023, a relief rally and this give-back.
- S&P 500
- +0.17%
- 10-yr
- 5.01%+7bp
- VIX
- 14.81−4.1%
- USD/JPY
- 157+BoJ hike
- S&P, on the week
- −0.11%
The BoJ hiked too, and got the same 'priced in' reaction as the Fed
BoJ 1.25% · USD/JPY 157+Japan's central bank raised its policy rate 25bp to 1.25%, a 31-year high, in a 7-2 split vote, with board members Asada and Sato dissenting. The yen fell anyway — USD/JPY broke back above 157 — because Governor Ueda's press conference gave no clear signal of further hikes, and the rate gap to the Fed still favors the carry trade. Japanese equities rose and JGB yields fell on the same read. Same shape as Wednesday in the US: a hike everyone expected isn't the story, the forward guidance is.
A record-adjacent quad-witching Friday capped Fed week
~$7tn expiringRoughly $7tn of options and futures contracts expired simultaneously — one of the largest quad witchings on record — adding volume and intraday swings without much net direction. S&P +0.17%, Nasdaq 100 +0.67%, Dow -0.18%, Russell -0.49%: a quiet headline number sitting on top of a choppy session underneath it.
The curve gave back Thursday's entire relief rally
10-yr back to 5.01%The two-year rose 9bp to 4.76%, the five 8bp, the ten 7bp to 5.01% — back to exactly where it closed Wednesday, the day of the hike itself — the thirty 5bp. Two days, one full round trip.
The week, done
S&P −0.11% on the weekThe S&P 500 finishes essentially flat, 7,658.63 to 7,650.50, after a week that ran through Monday's Amodei-driven chip selloff, Tuesday's hot PPI and the 10-year's first close above 5% since 2007, Wednesday's Fed hike and hawkish press conference, Thursday's relief rally, and today's give-back. The VIX moved from 15.86 to 14.81. A wild week that ends almost exactly where it started.