2 Oct 2026

Payrolls came in at 29,000, and the long end shrugged it off by the close

September payrolls rose just 29,000 against about 84,000 expected, unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, and the odds of an October hike fell below a quarter. The ten-year dropped to 5.16% on the print and was back up at 5.28% by the close. Stocks held their gains, the S&P up 0.73% and the Nasdaq 1.19%, but the S&P still lost 0.27% on the week. Tesla beat on deliveries, Nike fell again after its call, and the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels.

S&P 500: +0.73%
Payrolls: +29k
10-year: 5.28%+4bp
Tesla: +4.7%
S&P, week: −0.27%

Payrolls missed by a mile

payrolls +29k · jobless 4.2%

Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, against the roughly 84,000 economists had expected. July was revised to a loss of 10,000 and August down to 133,000, taking 60,000 out of the two months combined. Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, which BLS calls little changed, and hourly earnings rose just 0.1%, or 3.0% on the year. CME FedWatch odds of an October hike fell below a quarter, from 64% a week ago.

Bonds rallied, then gave it all back

10-yr 5.28% · 2-yr 4.83%

The ten-year fell to 5.16% within minutes of the release and spent the rest of the day climbing, closing up 4bp at 5.28%. The two-year finished up 5bp at 4.83%. Coverage didn't name a reason for the turn. Over the week the ten-year rose 11bp and the thirty-year 14bp to 5.63%, while the two-year was up only 2bp.

Stocks kept their gains, not the week

S&P +0.73% · week −0.27%

Tech led. The S&P rose 0.73%, the Nasdaq Composite 1.19% and the Dow 0.49%, and the chip ETF added 2.1%. Nvidia touched a record $237.87 intraday and closed up 1.34% at $233.95. On the week, the S&P still lost 0.27% and the Dow 1.26%, while the Composite gained 0.45%.

Tesla beat on deliveries

TSLA +4.7%

Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, down 2.1% from a year ago but about 25,000 more than the 461,974 consensus, and deployed 13.7 GWh of storage. The stock rose 4.65% to $370.59.

Nike fell again after the call

NKE −3.6%

Nike lost another 3.64% to $33.87, after Thursday's guide for a high-single-digit fall in fiscal 2027 sales. Chief executive Elliott Hill said the restructuring would mean "fewer roles across Nike." The stock is down 5.3% on the week.

The G7 opened its reserves

WTI ~$91.1 −1.9%

G7 members agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude over four months through the IEA, with diesel front-loaded in the first 20 days and the release starting immediately. Diesel prices have been near records. WTI was near $91.1 at the settle, down about 1.9%.